2008 Offseason - Shed Masta Flex

Shed Masta Flex types...



"I'm now settled back in after the wedding and ready to opine on the Bears. Since the Cutler trade there have been three main themes about Cutler and the Bears, 1 positive, 2 negative.

Positive: The Bears drastically improved at the quarterback position by trading for a premier quarterback
Negative 1: Despite his talents, Cutler is a gunslinger and makes more bad decisions and poor plays than a game manager like Orton.
Negative 2: The Bears have poor receivers, so the impact of the Cutler trade will be less than is expected

I don't want to set expectations unreasonably high because I'm tired of being disappointed when I'm wrong (see 2008 Cubs). I looked into the two negative themes to see if there was any merit to them.

Thoughts on Theme 1: When looking at the percentage of overall attempts, Cutler's play is not any more risky than Orton's.

Cutler has fewer poor throws, passes hit at the line and "Other" throws than Orton as a percentage of his overall attempts.

Looking at the raw numbers, Cutler's 18 interceptions last year look a lot worse than Orton's 12, but my contention is that Cutler's mistake numbers were actually about the same as Orton's.

Cutler and Orton's receivers dropped more passes than any of the other QBs receivers above (I will touch on this further below).

Cutler's "Other" numbers are especially low. Orton's numbers are especially high.

Not sure exactly whats in Other, but my guess would be intentional throws out of bounds and spikes. Meaning Cutler not only throws for huge yards, but also goes for it when others might end the play (and he still doesn't have elevated mistake numbers).

He has Big Nuts - a positive in almost any sport except cycling.

Manning is a world class quarterback. In my mind his only flaw is the happy feet he gets when under pressure. He might be the best ever. Warner, to his credit, had a world class season in 2009.

Conclusion: In 2008 Cutler made roughly the same amount of mistakes as a percentage of his overall attempts as Orton, but threw for nearly 1,500 more yards and seven more TDs.

Thoughts on Theme 2: The Bears receiving corps may look a lot different from Denver's 2008 group, but they will not drastically hurt Cutler's performance like the media and Donald Driver say they will.

Bears Broncos
Total Yards 3229 4545
Yards After Catch (YAC) 1564 1891
YAC Percentage 48.4% 41.6%

Total Yards YAC YAC Percentage
Bears Devin Hester 665 216 32.5%
Greg Olsen 574 270 47.0%
Matt Forte 477 441 92.5%
Broncos Brandon Marshall 1265 439 34.7%
Eddie Royal 980 359 36.6%
Tony Scheffler 645 206 31.9%

Denver and Chicago receivers had the same amount of dropped passes as a percentage of overall attempts (see first table above).

Bears receivers gained more yards after catch (YAC) than Broncos receivers as a percentage of their overall receiving yards.

Matt Forte gained a stunning 92% of his receiving yards after the catch. I don't think anyone gives him enough credit for how surehanded he is, how quickly he brings the ball in and makes his first move, and how good he is at making one excellent cut that will get him five yards alone. His receiving skills could help extend his career once he loses his speed 7-10 years down the road.
G
reg Olsen gained almost half of his yards after the catch. Everyone in the media has been saying that he is going to have a good year next year, but I haven't heard anyone put themselves out there and say he'll make the pro bowl. I am about to make that prediction - Greg Olsen makes the pro bowl.


Conclusions - The Bears top two wide receivers are worse than the Broncos top two wide receivers, but the Bears make up for it with their TEs and backs. Cutler won't throw for 4,500 yards again this year, but he will singlehandedly get the Bears 2-3 wins and will again be recognized as an elite quarterback in the NFL.

I still have a couple of lingering questions about Cutler including but not limited to - Why does he have a chubby face? Why did it take him 20+ years to realize he had type 1 diabetes? If he contracted type 1 diabetes in adulthood, is this worse than having it your whole life?

Ultimately I think the Josh McDaniels made a very stupid mistake - he traded a sure thing for a couple of low percentage chances at a sure thing and an average quarterback. Cutler had good reason to be pissed - no one trades an elite quarterback in their prime - the Broncos shopping Cutler signaled to him that they didn't think he was an elite quarterback. He took exception to this, and while I think he could have handled it better I don't blame him.

I'll end with this - a list of Bears starting Quarterbacks. Its a sorry list, but one that is about to get a whole lot better:

Dressen • Conzelman • Driscoll • Molesworth • Masterson • Luckman • Lujack • Blanda • Brown • Bratkowski • Wade • Bukich • Concannon • Carter • Douglass • Huff • Avellini • Phipps • Evans • Landry • Flutie • Lisch • McMahon • Fuller • Tomczak • Harbaugh • Willis • Walsh • Kramer • Mirer • Moreno • Krieg • Matthews • Mirer • McNown • Miller • Chandler • Burris • Stewart • Hutchinson • Quinn • Krenzel • Grossman • Orton • Griese

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Shed Masta...

absolutely GREAT stuff...

a couple things i have to just give you props for....

-big nuts are valuable in every sport except cycling...(i would add playing wiffle ball on fucked up terrain to that short list of exception sports)
-chubby face
-olsen prediction (agreed wholeheartedly)

You know...im just glad that there is someone else that I trust, and whos opinion matters to me....that agrees that Cutler is going to be great for this team despite what the 'professionals' are focusing on in the media.

to me, its obvious. But there are a shitload of naysayers out there....so i was starting to feel like i must just have a huge bias for the guy. The fact is...it will have less to do with him, and more to do with our team in general. He will come in and play QB better than anyone we have seen. The bigger question for bear fans SHOULD be...'how well will the REST of our team perform?'

Cutler, and the passing game, is the absolute LEAST of our worries....period.

a.) since when has passing game been important at all in bears football? I think that it should begin to be important, now that we have some opportunity there. But the way i see it...our advancements in the passing game are simply a bonus. The run game has to remain our focus. when that fails? throw the ball. Now, when we throw it, we might move the chains instead of turning it over. thats the difference.

b.) regardless of who our receivers are...and their arguable skill levels....there are targets out there (as Shed mentions - an amazing back, and TEs that other teams would kill for)....and thats what Cutler does.....hit targets.....on the numbers. Anyone who argues accuracy with Cutler is an idiot. He is going to throw the ball wherever there is opportunity. If our entire offense had their hands amputated...THEN (and only then,) would I be worried. Until then...fuck you....Cutler is going make throws....and if he hits people in the hands....chances are, they are going to catch it. i like my odds, whether its marshall and royal, or hester and lloyd....they are targets....thats all. Cutler will get it where it needs to be. What else can you ask of his position? And as you can see from Sheds handy stat charting.....the discrepency between the Denver and Chicago receiving corps is hardly what it is made out to be...

c.) Cutlers high interceptions are (to me) explained by poor defense and the need to take unusual offensive risks in order to stay in games. Does anyone expect the Bear Defense to resemble Denvers last year? haha...maybe thats not a good question to ask. But my hope was that the answer would be 'no, they wont be that bad'. so then, whats the problem? fuck off. True, Cutler is not known as a game manager....but when has he been put in a cushy enough position where thats all he was EXPECTED to be? How hard is it to start thinking more conservatively? This will not be a difficult transition for him. He will be just as good of a game manager as Orton, with the added bonus of being used to the pressure of making big plays when he really has to. the kids a gunslinger...but hes not a retard. c'mon now. he can hone it in and control his risks (I sincerely hope...HE IS a GUNSLINGER). especially under our sometimes frustratingly conservative coaching. Cutler will have plenty of chances to be the hero....he will have no incentive to make risky judgement calls when its not called for.

d.) Cutler changes our whole system. No longer can opponents assume anything about how they will be attacked by the bears. For this reason, I will preemptively credit Cutler for much more than Ed's predicted 2-3 wins. I think his mere presence on the team changes everything....and he and forte combined will pretty much summarize the key players in our win category the whole season....with a word up to our future pro-bowler Olsen, of course....

Thanks to SHED, for taking what I try to say, and making it readable...and backing it up with real stuff that makes sense. I'm not hard to convince in this regard.....but anyone who isnt convinced after reading this Shed-mail above, is severely pesimistic. I have nothing but hope for this season....and if I thought I might be disappointed, I would keep my feelings of hope about the season, a little bit more on the quiet side.....

To be clear.....I have high hopes for this season, and more...strong BELIEFS about a potential uncanny streak of success with the 'next gen bears' as i will call them.......and doubt i will be disappointed....

I'll take my chances that I may have to eat it big time....i sincerely believe we are about to be amazed.

if there is a Cutler bandwagon.....im driving it.

DLP