2008 Regular Season Week 5 - Bears @ Lions

Bears win...

they did good...

dream game...

Detroit lions tho...

Orton progressing well, even so...

Defense still looking hot...

Hester looking better at receiver...

Forte still impressing me quite a bit - far higher than my expectations...

Olsen back on track...lets hope he continues not to fumble...


So the reason for this bulleted e-mail is because I heard some complaints that I am falling behind with my weekly Bears e-mails...obviously this is true. I apologize for my lack of attention of late...I have been busy. But as you all know - busyness occurrs in phases - never fear - I will be back in full capacity at some point - where you will have a 4 page e-mail from me every week....right now tho it is just not possible. You will have to be satisfied with the briefer version (the preference for most of you im sure).

Lets be honest - when there is nothing to complain about...my e-mails are hardly any fun. Half of the good stuff comes from me going on a ridiculously unnecessary rant for 7 pages.

All that I saw was good on Sunday...and subsequently I have no entertainment for you.

DLP

-------------------

This is mostly a response to MElons, but Jon, I agree with you as well.

MElons writes...

"123, 92, 89, 43, 36 and
5.3, 4.0, 3.3, 2.3, 2.4

those are matt fortes total yards and yards per carry each game this year. For team that still wants to play 4 yards and a cloud of dust football, that doesn't bode well.

Im not sure what game you were watching but 36 yards on 15 carries against the lions for forte is pretty scary to me."



Yeah...I'll be honest - when I wrote that I wasnt REALLY thinking about the game...I think I was just thinking that we did well and that Forte must have been a part of that - but your right - he really wasnt (at least not according to the stats - I will explain below...there are some intangibles that I am not sure you are considering).

That doesnt change the fact that he has been impressive - and I do still think that - even in light of your handy number representation.

In fact, I'm glad that his carries have become fewer and that his numbers became lower. You know what that means? Other teams are planning for him.

At the beginning of the season, no one knew shit about him and he raped defenses. As he became a beeping coffee spill on the radar, defenses had to consider him as THE bear offense - and thats what he was/is. Once they started focusing their energies on that - looky looky - Orton has a fantastic game.

Forte is doing exactly what he is supposed to - legitimizing the run game of the bears. His talent level is the same - its just people know about him now. But that makes them vulnerable to OTHER things...like Orton.

So your numbers may mean one thing to you - but they mean something totally different to me.

They mean that our strategy is working. They mean that defenses think that they can stop us by stopping our run game. While they are focused on trying to do so, receivers are being opened up and we are getting bigger pass plays. A couple of stuffed runs every now and again, that get us back to the line of scrimmage, is worth the vertical game that we potentially gain.

Granted - Orton has to be on and the receivers have to catch the ball...but I feel like if not for Forte - you wouldnt see as much progression in some of the other players that will be key to our success throughout the season.

Forte cant do it all, but using him as a slight of hand tactic (look over here while I secretly send hester on a slant)...gets the ball into some of our other playmakers hands (and yes, we have others).

I was talking with Bahkus about this weeks ago actually. Forte cant do it all...we needed some other people to put forth some effort. By the opposing teams focusing on Forte - they are actually forcing that to happen....AND Forte's early success is the main reason why their (the other players on the team) efforts are increasingly resulting in success.

So while you may see a dismal future based on those numbers - I see confused opponents. I see people not really understanding where they should focus their energies or how to approach our offense.

The logical answer is to kill the run game --- and that should work against the bears in most cases...but in this case it didnt...and if I have been right all along about Orton's progression, it will continue to not work very well.

The fact is that Orton is better and has been getting better each game of the season.

Forte was good and still is good but no longer has the element of surprise.

With those two leaders on both aspects of the offense...the hope would be that if the run game has a bad showing - the pass game steps it up...when the pass game fails...the run game succeeds.

Against our defense - the opponent doesnt have much time to figure which to be most concerned with...the hope being that we are up by too large of a margin by the time they figure it out. They are not going to have much of a chance of coming back against a defense that scores as well as their offense does...and when our offense can give it to you by air or by foot and you have no initial clue which it could be today? money...

The big question is -- can we really give it to you by air OR by foot? I would suggest that we can -- but barely.... -- just as much as we have to. I'm not saying that either aspect of the offense will ever be breathtaking...but I think that they can do enough (because "enough" is truly just 3 points every once in a while).

Against our defense (the way it can be at its highest performance level), a couple of field goals per half will probably do it against most opponents...all other things considered (defensive scores, special teams).

We win field position games with a credible pass game. Forte makes the run game threatening enough to allow potential for a pass game. Success in a pass game does one of two good things - 1.) scores points 2.) puts our defense in a great position against their offense and forces them to go a long way against it to put anything up on the scoreboard

Our defense having an opposing offense on a longer stretch of field before their endzone gives our aggressive defense a lot of opportunities to mess something up and return the ball to OUR offense... AND giving them a short field to work with after a turnover. A couple of yards, just a sprinkle of success for our offense, and we have points.

And the defense gets back on to try it again, start the whole process over again... The key is that after a field position battle back and forth that WE end up with SOME points...

Its all connected - and Forte is the key that could potentially make it all snap together like its supposed to. His ability to legitimize the Bears as a running team (like they always should have been) will make or break the Bears this season.

The defense has always been top notch.

The pass game was shady but always has been and never wont be. We just need minimal talent there which will be magnified (for the better) by running success.
Now that we have seen a little running success...you are observing the magnification of the talent that has always been there but has been viewed as a weakness that opposition can take advantage of ...

When there is no other obvious threat, protecting from long yardage pass plays is easy. Not so easy when you need those coverage guys to stuff up the box in the event that Forte is planning on breaking one.

So whether Forte is literally successful or not, he makes or breaks every game.

Just as there is a Hester effect on punts and kickoffs...I believe that the game against the Lions reflected the Forte effect. Some of his value is intangible.

Those numbers dont bother me at all...


Jon,

I DO feel you on your O'line concerns - I think Forte would break huge ones if he could get some more openings -- I feel like he is being touched early way too often. Luckily hes a bruiser and usually finds the yards anyway - but he shouldnt be forced to fight like that until later in runs. He needs some space, which will give him more speed, which will give momentum, which will make end of runs much easier on him...not to mention harder on the defense.


Anyone else believe in the Forte effect? His numbers were bound to falter. His effect is even greater now as far as I'm concerned though...

He just cant get hurt...trust me - it would spell disaster....it would prove my point once and for all....but it would be a complete disaster.

Theres the 4 pager you were looking for Bouch?


DLP